USACrash Gambling Algorithm Explained
We are examining the mechanics behind crash gambling games and how they work. We’re reviewing the algorithm used for these games, whether you can use it to your advantage, and whether there are specific academic strategies you can implement when playing crash games. Let’s jump right into it.How does the algo matter when you’re playing?
If you love playing crash games – and any casino game, for that matter – it’s crucial to understand the mathematics behind the games you enjoy playing. When you understand the maths, you can make more informed betting decisions and increase your odds of winning to the highest possible degree.
Without this knowledge, you’re at a much higher risk of placing uninformed bets with statistically significantly lower returns. It’s also worth noting that most games do not share an algorithm with others, and because of this, you cannot apply the mathematical reasoning behind decisions in crash games to other games – unless they are also crash games.
FAQ
No, it is not. As a player, you have no control over the algorithm of crash games. You can never interact with the algorithm besides placing your bets and letting it run its course. If it did work like that, people would have come up with the perfect solution within weeks of the first crash game being released.
No, you cannot. As mentioned, you cannot physically interact with the algorithm behind crash games. This algorithm is not as much a part of the game as the mathematical system behind the game’s design. The algorithm of the game is merely what determines the results of every round and the probability of achieving specific results.
Some betting strategies have been tested on crash games, but they aren’t as effective as on other casino games. One of the main reasons for this is that most crash game websites have a ceiling for how much you can win with a bet. This ceiling is specifically a problem because for something like the Martingale Strategy – discussed below – to work, you theoretically need an infinite bankroll and no limit on how much you could win. So, while you can apply certain strategies, your expected winnings over time will be incredibly small compared to how much you could potentially lose. We’ll take a closer look at the specifics later.
Many websites offer crash games, so it’s hard to know who created the first version. We do know that it originated in the Bitcoin community’s online casinos.
How to calculate the expected value and average loss per game
One thing to note is that any crash game has about a 3% chance of crashing instantly. This instant crash means that everyone who bet on that round loses everything, and there are no pay-outs.
If the game does not crash instantly, you have roughly a 51.71% chance of losing your bet if you plan to cash out at 2.00x. The alternate way of viewing this is that you have roughly a 48.29% chance of winning a 2.00x return.
This return means that if you were to bet $1, you have a 48.29% chance of winning $2, leaving you with a $1 profit.
Now, to calculate the expected value of a $1 bet on a multiplier of X (in this case, 2), you’re multiplying the probability of losing (51.71%) with -1 (the amount you would lose in the round).
You then add the probability of winning (48.29%) and multiply it by the multiplier (2 in this case) and subtract 1 (to remove your initial bet and only leave your winnings. With a multiplier of 2, you would only win $1).
An example formula created by Youtuber Minding the Data looks like this:
E [$1 Bet on Multiplier x] =
(1/33 + 32/33(.01 + .99(1- 1/x - .01)))(-1) +
(x-1)(1-(1/33+32/33(.01+.99(1-1/x-.01))))
A more in-depth study – which you can view on the popular data YouTube channel Minding the Data – shows that the expected loss is roughly 3% when betting on a multiplier of 1 to 2. In contrast, with higher multipliers, the loss seems to increase to around 4%. So, with a multiplier of 2 and a bet of $1, the expected return after each game is roughly -0,035.
This negative expected value means it’s inherently impossible to win the game long term.
Can I create a betting strategy by studying the algorithm?
Regardless of how long you study the strategy, it is highly unlikely that you will devise a betting strategy that hasn’t already been thought of or tried.
Popular strategies such as the Martingale are probably your best chance at winning, and even those strategies are not remarkable to use with crash games.
The Martingale Strategy - Is it a good approach to the algorithm?
While using the Martingale strategy is a better option than not using one, it isn’t a good fit for crash games.
For those unfamiliar with the strategy, it requires that you double your bet every time you lose a round. This doubling down means that as soon as you win, you win back everything you’ve lost so far. Let’s look at an example:
Let’s say you bet $1 and you lose. You are now down $1. The next bet should be $2. This means that if you win, you get $4, which makes back the bet ($2), the initial loss ($1), and gives you a $1 profit. The premise of the strategy is that no matter how much you lose, you need to win a single bet to put you back into a $1 profit.
Depending on how much your initial bet is, you need to adjust these values. For example, if your initial bet is $8, your next bet needs to be $16, then $32, then $64, etc.
Now, if you were to apply the Martingale Strategy to a crash game, you could expect the following to occur:
| Bet Number | Bet | Potential Win | Total Wagered | Total Profit | Probability of Losing This Many Rounds | Expected Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $2 | $4 | $2 | $2 | 51.71% | -$0.07 |
| 2 | $4 | $8 | $6 | $2 | 26.71% | -$0.14 |
| 3 | $8 | $16 | $14 | $2 | 13.79% | -$0.21 |
| 4 | $16 | $32 | $30 | $2 | 7.16% | -$0.29 |
| 5 | $32 | $64 | $62 | $2 | 3.69% | -$0.36 |
| 6 | $64 | $128 | $126 | $2 | 1.89% | -$0.41 |
Final Notes About the Crash Gambling Algorithm
While using the Martingale Strategy has a high probability of netting you a small amount of money and a low probability of losing a large amount of money, it is only really feasible if you can support at least six-to-ten rounds of losses and doubling up.
While crash games are entirely random – and can net explosive wins – the odds of it happening are so low that it’s hard to endorse playing the game in any way other than using the Martingale Strategy – or similar strategies.
However, since these games all come with betting ceilings, your winnings will be rather insignificant versus the amount of time you will need to spend playing.
If you enjoyed this breakdown of the crash game algorithm, make sure to check out our full guide to the best crash gambling sites here.
Always remember to gamble responsibly and to seek assistance if you notice an addiction developing. Gambling should always be a fun recreational activity and never come at the expense of your mental or physical health.