USA
The US sports betting scene is changing fast, due to prediction market platforms: with regulatory hurdles easing, legal battles intensifying, and major players positioning for growth. From Polymarket’s cleared investigations to California tribes challenging Kalshi, alongside DraftKings’ potential Railbird acquisition, here’s what’s shaping the landscape for players and industry stakeholders this month.
TL;DR: A Bite-sized Overview:
- Polymarket acquires QCEX: $112 million deal aims to challenge Kalshi with regulated event betting.
- Polymarket cleared of charges: Federal probes end, paving the way for a potential US reentry.
- DraftKings eyes Railbird acquisition: Talks to buy a CFTC-licensed platform signal sportsbooks’ prediction market push.
- California tribes sue Kalshi and Robinhood: Tribes allege illegal sports betting, seeking to block markets on tribal lands.
Polymarket Acquires QCEX to Reenter US Prediction Market
Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market, acquired CFTC-licensed QCEX, a Florida-based derivatives exchange and clearinghouse, for $112 million in July 2025, paving the way for a legal US reentry after a 2022 CFTC ban. The acquisition, following the closure of a DOJ and CFTC probe into prior US activities, including an FBI raid on CEO Shayne Coplan’s home, allows Polymarket to offer regulated event-based betting contracts. With $6 billion in global trading volume this year, Polymarket aims to challenge Kalshi, the only CFTC-approved prediction market, despite needing to adjust offerings like box office contracts to comply with CFTC rules.
CEO Shayne Coplan expressed confidence in competing with sportsbooks like DraftKings and FanDuel, as well as Kalshi, which he called a “Polymarket copycat.” Unlike high-margin sportsbooks, Polymarket’s blockchain-based platform offers a low-margin, user-driven model for trading opinions on politics, sports, and culture. A partnership with Elon Musk’s X, integrating Grok chatbot insights, boosts its mainstream appeal, helping Polymarket compete. As user-driven growth fuels its “guerrilla” trajectory, Polymarket focuses on product delivery to attract traders seeking to test their predictions, with no set US launch date announced.
DraftKings Eyes Railbird Acquisition to Enter Prediction Markets
While Polymarket bought QCEX, DraftKings is reportedly in talks to acquire Railbird, a New York-based prediction market platform with secured CFTC approval.
The company is allowed to operate as a Designated Contract Market. Founded in 2021 by former Point72 analysts Miles Saffran and Edward Tian, Railbird allows trading on real-world events like politics, economics, sports, and weather, with backing from SeatGeek’s CEO and venture capital firms, aiming for nationwide access. The potential deal, unconfirmed by DraftKings, follows its withdrawn April 2025 application for a prediction market license, signaling a shift to acquire an already-licensed platform for faster US entry. Unlike state-regulated sportsbooks, Railbird’s federal license enables operations in states like California and Texas, where sports betting is illegal. With FanDuel exploring a Kalshi partnership, the acquisition could position DraftKings to compete in the growing prediction markets space, especially ahead of football season.
California Tribes Sue Kalshi and Robinhood Over Illegal Sports Betting
Three California tribes, Blue Lake Rancheria, Chicken Ranch Rancheria of Me-Wuk Indians, and Picayune Rancheria of Chukchansi Indians, filed a federal lawsuit against Kalshi and Robinhood, alleging their sports prediction markets violate the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act (IGRA), Federal Wire Act, and Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations (RICO) Act by offering illegal sports betting on tribal lands. The tribes seek injunctions to block these markets, claiming Kalshi’s event contracts, marketed as “The First Nationwide Legal Sports Betting Platform,” are unregulated wagers, undermining tribal gaming compacts and sovereignty.
Polymarket Cleared as Federal Probes End Without Charges
Polymarket is no longer under investigation by the U.S. Department of Justice and Commodity Futures Trading Commission, with both civil and criminal probes closed in July 2025 without charges, per CNBC reports. The investigations, sparked by concerns that Polymarket allowed U.S. residents to bet on political events despite a 2022 CFTC settlement and $1.4 million fine for unregistered binary options, included an FBI raid on CEO Shayne Coplan’s home in November 2024, seizing his devices. Coplan addressed the raid in the video interview embedded earlier in this post, saying that there were reasonable grounds to act on due to the media hysteria and false reports, but that investigators ultimately couldn’t find any wrongdoing because they (Polymarket) didn’t do anything wrong.
Coplan attributed the probes to political motives, noting Polymarket’s $100 million in 2024 election wagers favored Donald Trump, a stance echoed by Trump and Elon Musk. The closure, amid a pro-crypto shift under the Trump administration and a federal court ruling allowing KalshiEx’s election markets, signals easing regulatory barriers.