USA
September 2025 saw the US prediction markets surge, with familiar brands like Polymarket and PredictIt, as well as brand-new entrants like Underdog and MegaSportsPro, while legal battles intensified over the classification of sports contracts as gambling. An AGA survey revealed that the public indeed view sports prediction as a form of gambling, rather than commodities trading. Massachusetts’ lawsuits against Kalshi and Robinhood’s counteraction underscored tensions.
TL;DR: A Bite-sized Overview:
- AGA survey flags sports prediction contracts as gambling: 85% of voters demand state regulation.
- SEC, CFTC plan roundtable about prediction markets: Agencies tackle oversight gaps in prediction markets.
- Massachusetts sues Kalshi: State alleges unlicensed sports betting, seeks ban.
- Robinhood sues Massachusetts: Claims CFTC jurisdiction protects sports contracts.
- Kalshi hits $441M NFL volume: Sports markets surge, but pricing lags sportsbooks.
- Polymarket cleared for US launch: CFTC approval follows $112M acquisition of QCX.
- PredictIt secures CFTC licenses: Expands political betting after legal win.
- Underdog, Crypto.com debuts prediction markets: First fantasy operator enters 16 states.
- PrizePicks gains FCM status: Eyes prediction markets with $4B Allwyn deal.
- MegaSportsPro Launches in 24 States: Skill-Based Platform Offers Progressive Jackpots.
- Slips adds AI prediction markets: P2P platform enhances social betting experience.
AGA Survey: Most Americans View Sports Event Contracts as Gambling
According to a report from the American Gaming Association (AGA), a 2025 YouGov survey of registered voters showed that Americans largely perceive prediction markets as gambling, rather than commodities.
The survey revealed that 85% believe sports event contracts on prediction markets like Kalshi resemble gambling, not commodities, with only 6% viewing them as financial instruments. Additionally, 80% supported regulating these contracts under state and tribal gaming laws, not the CFTC, and 70% accused operators of exploiting loopholes to act as unlicensed sportsbooks.
AGA President Bill Miller urged the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to enforce rules against gaming contracts and called for Congressional oversight to prevent prediction markets from bypassing gambling regulations. The survey, echoing a July AGA study on sweepstakes, highlighted public demand for responsible gaming tools, with 66% rejecting Kalshi’s stance that players bear sole responsibility for losses. Amid legal battles, including California tribes’ lawsuits against Kalshi for misleading marketing, the AGA launched a resource page to advocate for stricter regulation, reflecting growing scrutiny of prediction markets’ sports offerings.
SEC and CFTC Plan Joint Roundtable to Address Prediction Market Oversight
The CFTC and Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will hold a joint roundtable to examine the fast-growing prediction markets sector, focusing on event contracts amid fragmented legal oversight.
The agencies aim to clarify regulations, explore 24/7 trading, harmonize margin rules, and consider exemptions for innovation, addressing legal uncertainties in cryptocurrency and event contract trading.
Operators like PredictIt and Robinhood, which offer sports contracts in states where sports betting is not yet legal, face scrutiny, with the Ho-Chunk Nation suing them for allegedly violating the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act.
The agencies emphasized the importance of avoiding regulatory gaps to ensure innovation without compromising oversight, underscoring the need for coordinated federal action. The roundtable is long overdue, following the cancellation of the spring roundtable.
Massachusetts Is Battling It Out on All Fronts
The state of Massachusetts filed a lawsuit in Suffolk County Superior Court against prediction market platform Kalshi, alleging its sports event contracts constitute unlicensed sports gambling. The state seeks to block these offerings, claiming Kalshi’s sports wagers, which comprised 70% of its trading volume from February to May, rising to 75% with March Madness markets, generated higher revenue than licensed sportsbooks like DraftKings and FanDuel. Attorney General Andrea Joy Campbell emphasized that Kalshi must obtain a state gaming license to operate legally.
Kalshi insists its contracts fall under CFTC jurisdiction, not state gaming laws, with a spokesperson calling Massachusetts’ actions an attempt to stifle innovation using outdated regulations.
Meanwhile, Robin Hood filed a federal lawsuit in Boston’s US District Court against Massachusetts Attorney General Andrea Campbell and the state’s gaming commission. Robinhood argues that Kalshi’s CFTC-regulated event contracts are exempt from state oversight under the Commodity Exchange Act, warning that enforcement risks irreparable harm to its business.
Robinhood’s contracts, executed on Kalshi’s CFTC-designated exchange, face similar legal challenges in Maryland, New Jersey, and California; however, Kalshi has secured injunctions in New Jersey and Nevada.
Kalshi Reports $441M NFL Week 1 Volume
Kalshi achieved $441 million in trading volume during the NFL season opener, with CEO Tarek Mansour noting nearly $200 million on Sunday alone, primarily from sports markets. Mansour compared the surge to US election betting, highlighting the platform's expansion into prop-style and parlay markets amid "surging demand" for regulated options.
More Brands About To Enter the Prediction Markets Space in the US
Polymarket Cleared for US Launch After CFTC No-Action Position
Polymarket received CFTC clearance to resume US operations, with CEO Shayne Coplan announcing the "green light" via X, crediting the agency's Division of Market Oversight and Division of Clearing and Risk for a no-action position on swap data reporting for event contracts. This exemption exempts Polymarket from enforcement for non-reporting, enabling legal entry following the July closure of CFTC and DOJ probes into US user bets, which ended without charges.
The approval coincides with Polymarket's completion of its $112 million acquisition of QCX, a CFTC-licensed derivatives exchange, positioning the blockchain-based platform to offer regulated event contracts on politics, sports, and culture.
PredictIt Gains Full CFTC License to Compete With Kalshi
The CFTC granted PredictIt full approval as a designated contract market and derivatives clearing organization. A significant win for the company, following previous struggles with the CFTC, most notably regulatory disputes dating back to 2022, which were resolved in July 2025.
While PredictIt competes with Kalshi and Polymarket, it does not offer sports predictions, which may be a safer long-term approach, considering the similarities between regular sports betting and prediction markets for sports events.
Underdog and Crypto.com Launch Sports Prediction Markets in 16 States
Underdog partnered with Crypto.com to debut sports prediction markets in 16 states without legal sports betting, marking the first fantasy sports operator to enter this space. The platform allows users to buy and sell contracts on major US sports leagues, including the NFL, NBA, and MLB
PrizePicks Gains CFTC FCM Approval, Eyes Prediction Markets Entry
PrizePicks’ subsidiary Performance Predictions II LLC secured National Futures Association (NFA) approval as a futures commission merchant (FCM) on behalf of the CFTC, enabling the fantasy sports operator to offer regulated prediction markets under the PrizePicks Predict brand. PrizePicks is on track to become the second fantasy sports operator in the space.
MegaSportsPro Launches Skill-Based Prediction Platform in 24 States
MegaSportsPro debuted in 24 US states, offering a skill-based sports prediction platform with lottery-style progressive jackpots and multiple prize paths. Users predict outcomes for a daily slate of 15 player-performance propositions across major leagues, competing for three daily jackpots that grow until all predictions are correct, plus weekly and monthly leaderboard cash pools.
Slips Unveils AI-Powered Prediction Markets for P2P Betting
Slips, a peer-to-peer wagering platform, launched AI-generated prediction markets, expanding its social gaming suite of Heads Up, Pools, and “Tourlays.” With 150,000 users, making Slips a notable platform that operates on a no-house model, offering direct betting, complete with leaderboards and chat.