USA
March 2026 marked a pivotal moment for prediction markets as the sector moved further into the mainstream through major sports partnerships and integrity-centric platform integrations. At the same time, regulators, lawmakers, and industry bodies intensified efforts to define how these products should be governed.
TL;DR: A Bite-sized Overview
- MLB partners with Polymarket: A deal granting access to league data and branding, alongside a CFTC agreement to strengthen oversight and integrity.
- Federal Reserve highlights Kalshi: A new study finds prediction markets can match or exceed traditional economic forecasting tools in key areas.
- Polymarket teams with Palantir: AI-powered monitoring tools aim to detect insider trading and improve industry integrity.
- Betr integrates prediction markets: A new partnership adding a new product into Betr’s super app.
- US senators propose ban on sports contracts: A bipartisan bill seeking to restrict prediction markets from offering sports-related betting products.
- bet365 exits AGA: The move reflects a widening industry split over whether prediction markets fall under gambling or financial regulation, following earlier exits of DraftKings, FanDuel, and Fanatics.
MLB Partners with Polymarket and Signs CFTC Oversight Agreement
Major League Baseball (MLB) has entered the prediction markets space through a multi-year partnership with Polymarket and a separate agreement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to strengthen oversight.
The deal gives Polymarket access to MLB data, branding, and promotional inventory, allowing it to offer event contracts tied to league games. At the same time, MLB and the CFTC established an information-sharing framework to monitor trading activity and protect game integrity, particularly in markets considered vulnerable to manipulation.
Federal Reserve Study Highlights Kalshi’s Role in Economic Forecasting
A study by economists at the Federal Reserve identified Kalshi as a potentially valuable tool for forecasting macroeconomic conditions, citing its ability to provide real-time, high-frequency market insights.
The research found that prediction market data can match or exceed traditional forecasting tools in areas such as inflation, interest rates, and unemployment, while also offering unique distribution-based insights not captured by surveys or consensus estimates. In some cases, Kalshi markets were more accurate in predicting policy outcomes, including rate decisions. The study suggests these platforms could complement traditional economic models by offering faster and more responsive signals on market expectations.
Polymarket Partners with Palantir to Strengthen Market Integrity
Polymarket has partnered with Palantir Technologies and TWG AI to enhance monitoring and enforcement across its sports-related prediction markets.
The collaboration will deploy an AI-driven system designed to detect suspicious trading activity, flag potential insider behavior, and screen participants against restricted betting lists. The technology will support a planned US-regulated platform, with capabilities including real-time trade monitoring and automated alerts. Considering the growing criticism of prediction market platforms and calls for regulatory oversight, this partnership is well-timed, as it can improve integrity and reduce risks of fraud and insider trading.
Betr Partners with Polymarket to Integrate Prediction Markets
Betr has entered a multi-year partnership with Polymarket to introduce prediction markets within its gaming app, expanding its multi-product “super app” strategy.
The integration will allow users to trade event contracts across sports, politics, and cultural events alongside existing offerings such as sportsbook, social casino, and arcade products. Betr plans to roll out the feature to its nationwide user base, positioning itself as one of the first U.S. operators to embed prediction markets directly within a full-suite gaming platform.
Bipartisan Bill Seeks to Ban Sports Contracts on Prediction Markets
A bipartisan group of U.S. senators has introduced legislation that would prohibit prediction market platforms from offering sports-related contracts, escalating federal efforts to regulate the sector.
The bill, led by Adam Schiff and John Curtis, would bar companies overseen by the CFTC from listing contracts tied to sporting events. It would also restrict platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket from offering sportsbook-style content or casino-style entertainment, reinforcing the distinction between financial markets and gambling.
“Critics of sports event contracts, myself included, argue that these contracts essentially function as sports betting products and should fall under the same, or similar, state regulation. At the same time, outright bans are not effective as they would push users to offshore platforms.” Patrik Lidin, Sports Betting Expert
bet365 Exits AGA as Prediction Market Divide Deepens
bet365 has exited the American Gaming Association, joining a growing list of operators distancing themselves from the organization amid disagreements over prediction markets. The move follows earlier departures by DraftKings, FanDuel, and Fanatics, as the AGA maintains its position that sports-event contracts constitute gambling and should remain subject to state and tribal regulation.